| چکیده انگلیسی مقاله |
Context and Goal: Forecast is one of the important tools in the hands of managers for strategic decision making. Shipping with all the benefits, but also injuries and significant losses associated with traffic accidents cause mortality and severe damage to life and property and the heavy consequences of social, economic, cultural and human societies is seriously threatened, which is important for future studies in the field of traffic accidents Method: In this study, using gray system GM (1,1), gray circulation model RGM (1,1), gray model FGM (1,1), remained the same model, ARIMA time series model and the harmonic pattern As well as the use of statistical data the number of victims of traffic accidents in the province between March 2009 and February 2016, To predict the number of victims referred to the coroner province between 2017 and 2020 is discussed. For the accuracy of prediction accuracy indicator gauge is used. Findings and Conclusion: Mean absolute percent error for models GM, RGM, FGM, changes survivor , Arima and harmonics to predict the number of patients referred to the 0.10,0.07 , 0.12 , 0.14,0.13 and 0.15 , respectively , indicating a more accurate method of RGM the anticipated number of patients referred to the coroner in the province of Zanjan. According to the results of the reference in the province RGM number of victims is declining. And the number of victims in the years 1398 to 2894 will reach people .the RGM, the best method to predict the number of disaster victims referred to legal medicine of Zanjan province compared to other methods of case study in this research, and managers and experts to predict with high accuracy can be used this way. Reducing the number of disaster victims referred to legal medicine represents the improvement of driving tips and actions and nested in the province is that we can continue with this approach to reduce the number of accidents and disaster more help. |